Faced with tightening emissions standards, especially in Europe and China, the automotive industry is rapidly scaling-up its eMobility efforts.
In so doing manufacturers have a raft of technologies they can call upon:
- Mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV)
- Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV)
- Plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
- Battery electric vehicles (BEV)
But which architecture is best suited to the task?
Each of these solutions has its own challenges and benefits, which automakers need to weigh up within the context of constantly evolving emissions standards, customer acceptance and corporate strategy.
What electric cars do manufacturers bring to market? Hybrid cars versus electric vehicles
The current production forecasts show that many carmakers are abandoning their ‘technology neutrality’ approach as they embrace electrification. The top 29 OEMs have announced plans to invest more than $300bn in scaling up xEV production over the next 10 years.
And with the new 95g/km per vehicle CO2 emissions having come into force in Europe on January 1, 2020, many manufacturers are turning to the 48V mild hybrid technology to help them meet the new regulations.
Why opt for 48V mild hybrid technology?
The 48V MHEV has several advantages over other electrification strategies:
- The system is relatively simple and cost effective to engineer or even retrofit to existing platforms – especially if a belt-starter-generator (BSG) is fitted in the P0 Topology
- The architecture offers good cost versus benefit returns, with between 12 to 20 percent emissions savings possible
- The technology is scalable – from P0 to P4 to meet specific cost and emissions strategies
- Using higher powered starter generators, such as the 48V 30kW BSG Continental announced in 2019, the MHEV can achieve limited electric-only driving, opening up the possibility for the MHEV to become a fully-fledged HEV
While sales are expected to grow by as much as 40 percent per year, there remains a question mark over the architecture’s viability past 2025 when emissions limits are set to be reduced by a further 15 percent. And with Volkswagen’s ID3 electric car entering the market at under €30,000, consumers may very well opt for this full electric vehicle option instead.
Nevertheless, there may be a respite for the technology. With pricing that could be as low as $9,000, Valeo has developed a full-time 48V EV, the Double 100, that may create a sustainable, novel niche in congested cities such as those found in China.
Surprisingly, in China, where the government is driving BEV volumes, the hybrid electric vehicle market has seen the most growth over the past year – even though in Europe HEV sales remain stagnant.
Sales of Japanese brands’ hybrids increased by about 30 percent in 2019 to more than 220,000, making HEVs one of the fastest-growing market segments, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. have increased overall sales on the back of this architecture in a market that has fallen almost every month since June 2018.
Consumer support of Hybrid Electric Vehicles is based on familiarity
Although HEVs, with their costly hybrid powertrains and short electric-only driving range, might not be the first choice for manufacturers desperate to meet emissions targets, they do have the support of the consumer.
This support is due to the fact that, although the vehicle is electrified, it does not require charging and for all intents and purposes operates as a traditional fossil-fueled vehicle. The HEV was also the first electrified powertrain to reach significant volumes, and has gained user trust thanks to its increasing familiarity.
While the consumer may appreciate the familiarity offered by the HEV, the limited electric-only range is problematic. The solution lies with increasing the electric capacity of the powertrain and enabling charging of the higher capacity batteries, thus creating the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.
The PHEV is integral to manufacturers’ electric vehicle strategy
PHEVs appeal to consumers who regularly drive longer distances, as well as single-car owners. They may also find a growing market in the rising number of cities that plan to ban ICEs in the city center.
Sales growth for PHEVs in most markets will be slower than that for other xEVs, hampered by the higher cost of the larger capacity batteries. Nonetheless, many OEMs will maintain a two-track BEV-PHEV strategy, with some markets continuing to incentivize PHEVs while building out their electrified vehicle infrastructure.
According to a 2020 report on electric vehicles by Boston Consulting Group, battery-powered electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will capture almost a quarter of the market by 2030; up from the previously projected global market share of about a fifth.
In the US alone, almost 40 percent more people are considering a PHEV, and 20 percent more considering a BEV, in 2018 than in 2010.
However, as charging infrastructure improves and consumers’ anxiety over range and time to charge recedes, the BEV will surpass both the PHEV and HEV to become the dominant electrification technology leading up to the next decade.
Manufacturers and governments adopt creative solutions to the challenges faced by battery electric vehicles
There are four key elements driving the BEV market, each influenced by a number of variables in a complex matrix that is often highly regionalized:
- Technology
- Compliance
- Industry perspective
- Customer perspective
Frequently cited as one of the key factors dissuading consumers from adopting EVs in greater numbers is the initial cost to purchase – often discussed in terms of pricing parity with ICE-powered vehicles.
This is being addressed at all levels by manufacturers, suppliers and governments. In the short-term, government subsidies seek to make BEVs more affordable thereby boosting the economies of scale to the point where the technology becomes self-sustaining.
The impact incentives have on EV sales was well demonstrated when the Chinese government cut incentives in 2019. The reduction of EV subsidies, by more than 60 percent in June 2019, triggered a drop of 1.2 percent in annual sales of BEVs, to around 972,000 units, over the 2018 volume.
With the battery pack making up anything from 25 to 50 percent of the total cost of a BEV there has been an industry-wide drive to slash prices.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s annual report released in January 2020, from 2010 to 2019 lithium-ion battery-pack prices have decreased from $1,100/kWh to $156/kWh – a decline of 87 percent. From 2018 to 2019 alone, prices dropped by 13 percent.
The report also suggested that the key $100/kWh could be achieved as soon as 2023. At which point it is theorized that cost parity with ICE-powered vehicles will be possible. Although a report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Energy Initiative argues that the $100/kWh cannot be achieved even by 2030.
Based on battery raw-material prices alone, MIT’s cost analysis indicates that a midsize battery-electric vehicle with a range of 200-plus miles will likely remain upwards of $5,000 more expensive to manufacture than a similar ICE vehicle through 2030.
Electric Vehicle charging infrastructure and its limitations
Another commonly cited drawback to BEVs is the availability of infrastructure related to the limited range and lengthy charge times of earlier electric cars.
To date, charging has required the vehicle to be physically connected to a charging station. However, there are several companies working on inductive charging, which allows vehicles to recharge their batteries without the need to plug in. It also has the ability to charge on the move – so drivers can be continually topping up as they travel, which would eliminate range anxiety.
In January 2020 Renault announced its INCIT-EV project that aims to encourage the development of electromobility in Europe. This initiative includes induction-charging trials that are scheduled to start in the second half of 2022. These trials will evaluate:
- A dynamic induction charging system for the urban environment
- A dynamic induction charging system for long-range and suburban applications
- A charging hub in a car park for car-share vehicles
- Low voltage bidirectional charging (for two-wheeled vehicles as well) and dynamic charging in taxi lanes located at the airport and central station in Zaragoza, Spain
Induction, also known as wireless charging, is capable of high power transfer with impressive efficiency. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee have been able to transmit 120 kW over 150mm with a 97 percent efficiency.
General electrified and electric vehicle adoption trends that could play out leading up to 2020
The type of electrification and adoption curve for electric vehicles vary by market, depending primarily on total cost of ownership (TCO), including the price of the vehicle, the number of miles (or kilometers) driven and local fuel and electricity costs.
However, with a combined 50 percent share of the worldwide auto market, China and Europe play a significant role in shaping global EV trends. The short-term direction in the US is unclear as policy differences between the current administration and the State of California have yet to be resolved.
Furthermore, mass-market smaller vehicles such as B-segment superminis and C-segment family-sized hatchbacks, will likely adopt hybrid powertrains over expensive electric vehicle platforms as a more effective mainstream strategy. However, this could change should the battery-pack costs dip below the $100/kWh.
Due to the cost, ICE and hybrid vehicles are also likely to dominate major emerging markets across Asia, Middle East, Latin America and, eventually, Africa for years to come. Cost will remain king in these lower per capita income markets, which will probably extend the life of ICE and hybrid-powered vehicles.